Dr. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma
Professor of Economics. Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU)
28/11/14
Abstract: We present a modelling framework aimed at obtaining reliable income projectionsat the regional level in European countries. The methodological setting allowsfor an explicit assessment of model uncertainty in terms of the choice of explanatory variables and the specification of spatial spillovers. We exploit and expand recent developments in Bayesian model averaging in order to construct projected trajectories of income per capita at the regional level and exemplify the workings of the methodology by examining the potential contribution of future educational attainment changes to economic growth and income convergence in the European Union.
